Friday, January 18, 2008

What's ahead?

Two predictions: (or are they wishes?)

1. Thompson to drop out after SC and then endorse Romney. Even if he doesn't endorse Mitt, his conservative followers will have to pick the next most conservative. (Mitt is just as conservative as Fred...but is a pro-life convert)

This prediction is based on this RCP average:

McCain 28
Huckabee 24
Romney 17
Thompson 14

A dismal fourth-place finish will force Thompson to drop out (hopefully sooner than later)

2. McCain will not have the money to compete in Florida...and it will become a Rudy/Romney slug-out. Romney will tout his economic strengths and run against a pro-choice former mayor. Expect a Romney win in Florida!

Florida's latest polls (insider advantage):

Rudy 21
Romney 20
McCain 20
Huckabee 13

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

WOOHOO!! Mitt won Michigan--now it’s off to Nevada and South Carolina!!

I’ve been a little bit out of the loop lately, it’s been especially busy down at the embryonic stem cell research factory lately. We’re trying to use stem cells to grow a conscience for Republicans who still believe that George Bush is doing a good job in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary; this is proving to be the most intractable problem we’ve ever faced. Every time we try, we come up with a perfect genetic copy of Rush Limbaugh’s ass. Curious indeed, but we’ll keep working on it.

Anyhoo…how about our boy Mitt? He finally won the gold medal all his adoring legions were praying for (when they weren’t busy praying for a plague of angry, rabid locusts to descend upon the McCain and Huckabee camps).

But it’s not just that Mitt won that is most exciting for his supporters, it’s HOW he won. Taking a page from Bush’s playbook, Mitt has chosen to bank on the stupidity of the Republican electorate. Quite simply, he lied---and the people loved it!! Republicans, it seems, have an incredible propensity to ignore what they know in their gut about a person, and choose instead to accept statements they know not to be true, but which are spoken in a confident, reassuring way. A couple of weeks ago Mitt was playing the part of a small government conservative, but in Michigan he morphed into a big government economic liberal, backing a $100 billion bailout for the auto industry…the people of Michigan forgot about the old Mitt, they loved the new one! He denounced the increase of the corporate CAFE standards last week in Michigan, completely at odds with his previous statements, but once again, Michiganders ignored Mitt’s past statements and focused on the new Mitt. Forget his past support in gay rights, the new Mitt says that he despises gays, and Republicans love it! Ignore my past support of abortion rights, says Mitt, focus instead on my new position against those same rights. Republicans dutifully comply! Pay no attention to his past record in Massachusetts where he increased taxes and fees by a total of $700 million, he says that he’s a committed tax cutter, and people simply accept it! He asks that we ignore his history of slashing jobs as a corporate raider at Bain Capital, focus instead on his re-invention as a supporter of job growth…and we do! He’s found the formula for success; simple prevarication. Given that this is at the core of the man, his stock in trade so to speak, he seems at this point to be a shoo-in for the nomination!

It’s has been pointed out repeatedly that Mitt has been on both sides of nearly every major issue. Rational people might see this as a liability, but many Republicans (principally of those who still support Bush, one presumes) don’t see it that way. Rather than focus on his hyper-aggressive flip flopping, they dutifully do what Mitt asks and focus on his latest incarnation. Mitt’s campaign seems predicated on the belief that most Republicans are either stupid enough or have poor powers of recollection (ideally both) to put him over the top. So far it seems to be working. Go Mitt!

Anonymous said...

The nice part about the web is that anyone can say anything...and if it appears online it must be true, right?

While I appreciate the creativity in the previous response, it is clearly the work of someone supporting another candidate. This individual probably supports a large federal government and higher taxes, and who probably has never worked for a real, private firm that has to make money.

I'd guess maybe this person is a disgruntled English major who went to work for a non-profit, or maybe a journalist who would rather rail against capitalist aggression. Whatever. Glad to have you lurking...

Kari said...

I like your commentary, on the Mitt Rocks blog. I'm in agreement with you!!

MarkMyWord said...

The first commenter is certainly off-base. It wasn't a case of McCain telling the hard truth & Mitt peddling sweet lies. He, coming from a car family, really believes the American auto industry can and needs to survive & compete. If pinned down to specifics, I'm sure he would agree that not ALL jobs will be saved. McCain seemed to be throwing up his hands and saying "If you've worked in the auto industry, you'd better learn some useful trade." I think Mitt's point is that every automotive job we CAN save is worth fighting for.

MarkMyWord said...

Now, on the endorsement subject. The Fox pundits seem convinced that Thompson will throw his backing to McCain...and that Romney should be rooting for Huckabee to win in SC, to keep McCain from picking up too much steam.

Do you really think we CAN get Fred's endorsement?

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