Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Romney down but not out...

by David Alvord

Yesterday, John McCain came back to the folks who delivered to him an 18 point advantage over George W. Bush back in 2000. A lot of them stayed loyal to him, but many also came out for our guy. Final score: McCain 37, Romney 32, Huckabee 11.

Why did this happen? While Romney was duking it out with Huckabee in Iowa, McCain was spending lots of time in New Hampshire. Also, those independents came out for him in the end.

Romney should feel good that the mainstream conservatives were in his corner yesterday. But a loss is still a loss and we all have to admit that it hurt Mitt. But save your obituaries because there is still no front-runner in the race on either side.

Michigan will be the pivotal moment in this race. A Romney win would put Mitt back in the lead. A Huckabee win might propel Mike to South Carolina and possibly on to the nomination. A McCain win would give John two in a row.

Romney is going in to Michigan from a position of strength because he is the leader of the delegate count.

Delegates earned:

Romney 30

Huckabee 21

McCain 10

Thompson 6

Paul 2

Giulinani 1

Hunter 1

Michigan is a must win for Mitt, but is very possible. This will be a crucial six days!


Cold Leftovers said...

With two caucuses and one primary down, the Republican party is telling us that they like Mitt more than the other candidates.
He not only leads in delegates, but also in the popular vote over McCain (2nd place) and Hickabee (3rd), telling us that he is the choice for most GOP's. A victory in Michigan in imperative, however, because the media is already counting him out and, unfortunately, people actually listen to them.

Garrick said...

can't believe Hilary's tears got her the votes she needed to eke out a victory over Osama -- I wanted her out of the contest. Mitt did well enough to stay viable in the race. I'm furious that everyone glossed over his victory in the Wyoming caucus.

Now, Mitt heads to Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida — all of which are prelude to the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” battle for 23 primary states. Mitt should be firmly placed on top with wins in MI and NV. Supposedly, Giuliani is going to come out of the woodwork in FL with a blockbuster victory. I predict Huckabee will drop out prior to Super Tuesday.

The primaries seem to be more volatile than usual, especially if Giuliani does have a huge FL win. This reminds me of when Billy boy Clinton came out of obscurity to earn the Liberal nod. Mitt needs Huckabee to drop out and needs Giuliani to fail in FL to have a clean run to the Republican nomination.

In Myrtle Beach, at the GOP debate, Mitt needs to avoid talking about family values and talk about running the country like a successful business and talk about his business accomplishments. America will like that -- while I personally love family values, it has become a played term for the American public. He can't go wrong by saying that he will lower taxes.

Anonymous said...

I don't know that Romney will win Michigan, I'm from there too, and trust me as a Mormon I felt hated. Granted, that was in high school and everyone feels hated in high school, but there were more than enough evangelicals to write "devil worshipper" on my locker. Couldn't it be Romney just makes a solid showing in lotsa states and builds up the delegate count that way, catering to solid, conservative republicans - I mean the old fashioned kind with good values?

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