Saturday, December 1, 2007

The Next President Will Be a Democrat (Unless We Nominate Mitt Romney)

I just had an epiphany. In the general election, the Republicans are at a serious disadvantage. For a variety of good and bad reasons, popular sentiment has been moving in the Democrats' direction. This is proven out in two ways:

1. In head-to-head match-ups, virtually ANY Democrat beats virtually ANY Republican. It's been like this for months now.

2. In fundraising, the Democrats have out-raised the Republicans by 39%! A HUGE and insurmountable advantage.

I can guarantee you that the Democrats will receive more campaign contributions than the Republicans during the general election. This is a very important consideration as expensive national advertising is SO critical to winning elections these days. Think about it: If advertising has had such a major effect during the primaries, when only the most hard-core politically savvy people vote, imagine what kind of effect it will have during the general elections, when WAY more people vote. When the masses come out the the general election, they will most likely be more influenced by campaign ads than the more thoughtful primary voters.

What does all this mean? Well, it means that the Democrats are almost guaranteed a win come November 2008. Kinda sucks huh? We'll, there is some good news. It just so happens that there is one Republican who can not only mobilize significant donors on his behalf (as shown in the chart above), but has a personal fortune that could dwarf even the most ambitious fundraising goals of the Democrats. And the really good news: This candidate (Mitt Romney if you haven't figured it out yet) has already shown that he's ready and willing to throw his own money into the race.

Bottom line: Republicans will not be able to raise enough money to win the Presidency unless they nominate Mitt Romney.