Monday, December 17, 2007

Iowa is a must-win for Huckabee

by David Alvord

Mike Huckabee has to win in Iowa or else he is done...and he'd better win big. A Romney win in Iowa would propel him to the nomination, but a loss could still eventually lead to a Romney nomination. But for Huck, a loss in Iowa would result in the headline: Huckabust!

The scenerio where Romney wins Iowa is obvious. He wins Iowa, then New Hampshire, then Michigan, then Nevada...and on to Florida.
The scenerio where Romney loses Iowa, while not preferred, is also OK because after a NH win... for the next few weeks, the contests are between Romney and Guiliani. Check Real Clear Politics and see for yourself! So if Mike gets an Iowa boost, he will have to wait for South Carolina to take advantage of that boost. Romney, on the other hand, will have his NH win to propel him against Giuliani.

Following is the primary schedule and the candidates who are polling well in the respective states:

Jan 3 IOWA: Romney-Huckabee battle

Jan 5 Wyoming: Romney win (no battle)

Jan 8 New Hampshire: Romney-McCain battle

Jan 15 Michigan: Romney-Giuliani battle

Jan 19 Nevada: Romney-Giuliani battle

Jan 19 South Carolina: Romney-Huckabee battle

Jan 29 Florida: Three-way battle: Romney-Huckabee-Giuliani

Feb 5 Super Duper Tuesday

See for yourselves, Romney is tied or leading in each of the early states. (see link to RCP)

The scenerio where Huckabee loses Iowa would be devastating to his campaign! If Romney ties Huckabee, it would also be devastating to Huck's campaign. But even if Romney loses Iowa, he can still win NH and Michigan...and then on to SC where he is tied with Huck. Who has the bigger bounce? The guy with one win, or the guy with three or four?

The only recipe for disaster for Romney is a loss in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But the only person for which Iowa is do or die is Mike Huckabee.


William said...

Great coverage! Mitt is definitely the man for the job. Please check out to make contributions to him count twice!

Anonymous said...

Good post. The only thing with which I would disagree is that losing Iowa and New Hampshire is a disaster for Romney.

Coming in 3rd or 4th is a disaster, but 2nd in both (especially to different opponents!) still allows Romney to get to Michigan, South Carolina and the like.