Friday, February 9, 2007

Home-State advantage

This Tuesday, Mitt Romney will formally announce his run for the White House in '08. He will do so in his "home state" of Michigan. And it just hit me that Mitt really has three home-States! Michigan, Massachusetts, and Utah.
I believe this is all the more reason Mitt's candidacy should be taken seriously. After all, most candidates only get one state to call home.

So let's tally the electoral votes.

Mitt Romney: Utah, Michigan, Massachusetts 5+17+12 = 24
John McCain: Arizona (if he can get them) 10
Rudy Giuliani: New York 31

Of the three, I think that Romney has the best chances to secure these electoral votes. New York rarely votes Republican in a presidential election. The same can be said of Massachusetts...except Romney has been elected there himself...and it should increase his odds. McCain does not poll well for a presidential election in Arizona. So I view Romney the leader in the chase for electoral votes based on the "home-State advantage".

-David Alvord


Anonymous said...

Chocolate donut Mitt gets Arizona. Going out on a limb here, but McCain is fading everywhere.

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