So the traditional thinking is that whoever does well in Iowa, New Hamshire, and South Carolina, will win the nomination. That still may be true, except this year Michigan is third on the calander.
Here are the results from last weekend's Mackinac Straw Poll (Michigan)
Romney 39% (383 votes)
McCain 27 (260)
Paul 11 (106)
Giulaini 11 (104)
Thompson 7 (70)
Huckabee 3 (25)
Hunter 1 (12)
Brownback >1 (3)
Tancredo 0 (0)
Uncommitted 2 (16)
Again, here is the primary schedule along with our predicted winner:
January 5: Wyoming - MITT
January 14: Iowa - MITT
January 15: Michigan - MITT
January 19: Nevada - MITT
January 19: South Carolina - THOMPSON OR GIULIANI
January 22: New Hampshire - MITT
By January 22, it is a real possibility that Mitt will have won five of the six early contests!
“I hate to compare all this to baseball, but I probably know more about baseball,” Mr. Giuliani said in an interview this summer. “It is always important to win the first game of the series, and the second game of the series. But teams have won World Series that have lost the first two games, including, by the way, the Yankees.”
That may be true for the Yankees...but has any team gone on to win after losing the first 5 of 6 games?